Saturday, August 31, 2024

Choice is a Demon

Some more interesting thoughts about thoughts . . . 

People are terrible at predicting outcomes.  The terrible things we imagine happening (think: dentist's office + pain) don't end up being that bad and the enjoyment we expect to get out of fun things (think: football game homecoming - hard benches - shitty hotdogs that cost $10) tend to be more "Meh" than "Wow."  Relax, okay?  It's all going to work out.  Just quit pursuing the pleasure and fleeing the pain.  You're probably getting it wrong. 

If people who are trying to decide whether to see a new movie are given the choice of seeing a short trailer of the film or reading several online reviews written by average viewers most people choose the clip option.  In reality it's much more likely that a bunch of reviews written by non-professionals we don't know is going to predict whether or not we enjoy the show.  We tend to way, way overestimate our abilities.  We are not all that.  We are all pretty average.  Most people view the world in a similar way.  If you like the clip but the average Joe reviews are terrible then you're probably not going to like the movie, either.  Who do you think you are: Gene Siskel?  The average driver rates himself as excellent and everyone else as below average.  Think about it.  The numbers don't work.

Choice is a demon.  Too much choice is a mean demon.

Uncertainty seems like a demon but it's actually not a demon.

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